avengersarcadegame| Sheng Wenbing: US CPI boosts gold prices, gold retracts back long

WednesdayAvengersarcadegameConfidence that the Fed will cut interest rates in September was restored by US CPI data in April showing a return to a downward trend in inflation and unexpectedly flat retail sales last month. The dollar index fell sharply in intraday trading and closed down 0.Avengersarcadegame.67%, at 104.3. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell below 4.4 per cent to close at 4.344 per cent. The yield on the two-year bond, which is most sensitive to the fed's policy rate, closed at 4.738%. The three major indexes of US stocks all reached record highs, with the Dow up 0.88%, the S & P 500 up 1.17% and the Nasdaq up 1.4%. Major European stock indexes closed up across the board, Germany's DAX index closed up 0.82%, Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.21%, and the European Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.41%.

Thursday's risk warning

☆ today, Russian President Vladimir Putin pays a state visit to China.

At 09:30 in ☆, Australia will release its quarterly unemployment rate in April.

At 20:30, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims in the week to May 11. The market is expected to record 220000, down from the previous value of 231000. In addition, the United States will also release the annualized total number of housing starts in April, the total number of construction permits in April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in May and the monthly rate of import price index in April.

☆ 21:15, the United States will release the monthly rate of industrial output in April

At 22:00, ☆, Richmond Fed Chairman Balkin was interviewed by CNBC.

☆ 22:30, the United States will announce EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 10.

At 0: 00 the next day, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mestre gave a speech on the economic outlook.

At 03:50 the next day, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

The dollar index fell 0.6 per cent to its lowest level in more than a month, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. The dollar's weakness was partly due to a lower-than-expected rise in US consumer prices in April. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from the 0.4% economists had expected, indicating that inflation resumed its downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter, boosting financial market expectations of a Fed rate cut.

In addition to the lower-than-expected CPI data, other US economic data were also weak. Retail sales were unexpectedly flat in April, falling short of market expectations. This further strengthens the Fed's hopes of starting an easing cycle this year, as the data suggest that domestic demand is cooling, in line with the Fed's policy objective of trying to push for a soft landing.

Geopolitical tensions are also one of the factors supporting gold prices. The continuing fighting in the Middle East, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas, has provided additional support for gold prices. The Israeli army is engaged in fighting with Hamas forces throughout Gaza, exacerbating the instability of the situation in the region. In addition, tensions have been heightened by the deaths of United Nations staff in India in the conflict. This geopolitical risk makes investors more likely to hold safe-haven assets such as gold.

Gold prices began to rise on Wednesday as expected in the four-hour support area, and then pulled up strongly with the help of evening US CPI data and retail sales data. Today gold focus on the lower 1-hour short-term upward trend line support level 2375 area, after the short-term stabilisation, continue to increase positions to do long gold. This trading day, the Middle East pays attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the performance of housing market data, pay attention to the monthly rate of US industrial output in April and Fed officials, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.

Us economic data have had a significant impact on the crude oil market. Oil prices rose on Wednesday, in part because U. S. data showed that crude oil stocks fell more than expected. In addition, weak inflation data have fuelled expectations of interest rate cuts later this year. Consumer prices rose less than expected in April, indicating that inflation returned to a downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter, supporting financial market expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates in September.

The weaker dollar has also boosted demand for crude oil to some extent. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates later this year, causing the dollar to fall to a five-week low against a basket of other currencies. Demand for crude oil has been boosted by the reduced cost of buying dollar-denominated goods in other currencies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast for global oil demand growth has also had an impact on the crude oil market. The IEA on Wednesday cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024, further widening its differences with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) on the outlook for global oil demand this year. One of the main reasons is that low industrial activity and a warm winter have weakened diesel consumption, especially in Europe. This downward forecast for the growth of global oil demand has raised concerns about the future supply and demand relationship, partly suppressing the rising momentum of oil prices.

Finally, geopolitical factors also have an impact on the crude oil market. In particular, instability in the Middle East, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the actions of Israeli troops in Gaza have all led to market concerns about supply disruptions. Although there have been no substantial supply disruptions, this geopolitical tension still creates some uncertainty in the market.

Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday from a two-month low in the previous session as the market weighed bullish u.s. economy and crude oil inventory data against the IEA's forecast for weak global oil demand growth. Today, crude oil focuses on the support level formed after the one-hour downward trend line breaks through. At the same time, pay attention to the news related to the situation in the Middle East and the changes in the unemployment benefits requested by the United States at the beginning of the week, and the monthly rate of US industrial output in April spoke to Fed officials.

The content of the article is purely the author's personal point of view, not as the basis for investment decision-making, only for reference! It is a pure coincidence that there are any similarities. The risk lies in control, fire fighting is not as good as fire prevention.

[risk Tip] according to the relevant regulations on foreign exchange management, the buying and selling of foreign exchange shall be carried out at the trading venues prescribed by banks and other countries. Whoever buys and sells foreign exchange privately, buys and sells foreign exchange in disguise, buys and sells foreign exchange or illegally introduces a relatively large amount of foreign exchange shall be imposed by the foreign exchange control agency according to law; if the case constitutes a crime, he shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.